Ministry forecast: Unemployment level at 7.7 per cent in 2012
The average unemployment level in 2012 shall be 7.7 per cent. During the final part of the year, the situation shall apparently weaken due to the uncertain economic development. In 2012, unemployment shall rise to 7.9 per cent. This represents the assessment in the new short-term labour market forecast by the Ministry of Employment and the Economy.
The labour market forecast is based on the assumption that Finland avoids a recession, but economic growth in 2012 shall remain modest. In 2013, economic growth shall rise slightly. Nevertheless, the employment rate may slightly decline at the time due to the impact of weak economic development in 2012.
Economic prospects shall vary from branch to branch. In services, the situation is reasonably good, whereas the circumstances in industry and construction are weaker at the moment. Also in industry, there are large differences between the various branches.
Despite poor economic growth, labour demand may slightly increase during the year in progress and remain on the same level in 2013. This change shall remain, however, quite modest. Simultaneously, the slight increase in the size of the labour force will continue. The background for this growth is found in the increased amount of work performed by older employees.
Long-term unemployment is still increasing. According to the assessment, the number of long-term unemployed shall total approximately 65,000 at the end of 2012. Of these, unemployment extending over two years affects about half.
The Ministry of Employment and the Economy publishes a short-term labour market forecast in spring and autumn. The forecast has been prepared by advisor Johanna Alatalo and advisor Mika Tuomaala from the Ministry’s Labour Market Information Division.
The labour market forecast can be read on the website of the Ministry of Employment and the Economy at www.tem.fi/julkaisut (in Finnish).
Mika Tuomaala, Advisor, Ministry of Employment and the Economy, tel. +358 (0)10 604 8450