Press releases: Energy
Ministry estimates: Growth trend in electricity consumption levelling off
Electricity consumption has settled into a lower-than-expected growth trend, due to the current economic recession, structural change in the forest industry and the intensely growing efficiency of electricity consumption in households and services. Estimated consumption of electricity totals around 91 TWh for 2020, while for 2009, consumption will be some 80 TWh. Finland’s climate and energy strategy projected a markedly higher consumption figure as the objective for 2020, i.e. 98 TWh. According to the estimate, electricity consumption in 2030 will total some 100 TWh.
The estimated trend may be realised if forest industry production develops in accordance with the Finnish Forest Research Institute’s most recent estimates. These assume that the forest industry will launch a large number of new products on the market, which are now at the developmental or experimental stage, and that by the end of the review period, 2–3 biofuel production plants utilising wood as raw material will be constructed in Finland.
If the measures for improved efficiency of electricity consumption succeed in compliance with objectives, electricity consumption could remain even lower than proposed. However, electricity consumption may end up higher if the forest industry recovers from the structural change and is able to develop a higher than estimated number of new energy intensive products.
Regardless of the slower growth in electricity consumption, Finland needs new power plant capacity. The electricity supply corresponding to condensing power, import of electricity or electricity capacity to be removed from use, and growth in consumption, would in 2020 total some 12 TWh and some 17 TWh in 2030.
Were the supply of electricity for consumption peaks secured with domestic capacity, approximately 1,000–1,500 MW of new capacity would have to be constructed by the early 2020s, and around 2,500–3,500 MW by the year 2030. Some of this would be base-load power, and some peak load power in use for short periods of time. Estimates are based on the assumption that power and heat co-generation plants will be replaced with new facilities of the corresponding type. Calculations do not take a stand on the replacement of existing nuclear power plants or their removal from operation. Operating licenses for the Loviisa nuclear power plants expire towards the end of the 2020s. Calculations are based on the assumption that these would either be continued or replaced with corresponding nuclear power capacity or other low-emission power generation.
It appears that measures compliant with the climate and energy strategy will not leave Finland in a position to achieve its renewable energy objective, 38% of final energy consumption by 2020. A large number of new methods will therefore be necessary. Without such measures, it seems likely that the share of renewable energy will only rise to one third. In this respect, even greater efficiency in energy consumption than the latest estimates will prove necessary.
However, with respect to the emissions objective of non-ET sector industries, it seems that measures taken in compliance with the climate and energy strategy will enable Finland to meet its EU burden sharing objective agreed for 2020.
Estimate of energy consommation (in Finnish)
Further information
Taisto Turunen, Director General, tel. +358 (0)10 606 4700
Arto Lepistö, Industrial Counsellor, tel. +358 (0)10 606 4808
Timo Ritonummi, Senior Engineer, tel. +358 (0)10 606 4798
Pekka Tervo, Senior Adviser, tel. +358 (0)10 606 4796